US mid-term elections: Can the Republicans win back Latino voters?

Almost half of Latinos in the US voted for Donald Trump in 2024 – and thus played a key role in his success. Many had high hopes for him. What is the mood amongst Latinos in the run-up to the mid-term elections? By Nina Barth In the presidential election two years ago, around 42 per cent of Latinos in Arizona voted for Donald Trump. In that state, around a quarter of eligible voters have Latin American roots. Many had high hopes for Trump – because of his announced policy of deporting illegal immigrants who had committed crimes, or because of his promises to improve the economic situation. Yet, with just under two weeks to go before the crucial US mid-term elections, polls predict that Trump’s Republican Party will lose many votes from this key voter bloc. Twenty-year-old Kamilla voted Democrat back in 2024 and intends to do so again this time. She is at an autumn festival in Patagonia – a small town in the south of the state of Arizona, about half an hour from the border with Mexico – with her sister and parents. Visitors are strolling past market stalls or sitting in front of a stage with live music. Many here are Latinos. Kamilla’s grandparents also immigrated to the US from Mexico. “Trump only cares about a small minority – rich white people,” she says. Her sister Emma says that, as a Latina, it feels terrible to have Trump as president – “someone who has such a poor opinion of your culture, of your roots”. Approval ratings have plummeted Both hope the polls are right: they show widespread dissatisfaction with Trump and the Republican Party amongst Latino voters. According to an NBC News/Telemundo poll from early October, Trump’s approval rating amongst Latino voters stands at just 27 per cent. The proportion of Latino voters who view the Republican Party negatively is at its highest since 2016. And when asked who Latino voters would prefer to see in the US Congress, the Democrats lead comfortably with 59 per cent, compared to 35 per cent for the Republicans. Other polls have reached similar conclusions. “We don’t know if we’ll be next” As in Patagonia, Latinos also make up more than 40 per cent of the population in Tucson, about an hour and a half away. Just outside the city, in the desert plains surrounding Tucson, stands a large church known as the “White Dove of the Desert”. Mia and Amy, both Latinas, are here because they want to visit the church. Amy says she’s barely making ends meet financially. In the past, one income would have been enough; today, she says, you need two jobs to be able to live a decent life. Her friend Mia nods, but adds that, as a Latina, something else is causing her even greater concern. She feels that Latinos are afraid to go out onto the streets. “Even American citizens are being arrested; we don’t know if we’ll be next,” says Mia. A young man called Carlos is taking photos of the church. He is 29 years old; he came to the US from Mexico with his parents when he was 16. Fear is the prevailing feeling in the Latino community, he explains: fear of reprisals for speaking one’s mind. Fear of speaking out and then being arrested by ICE, even if you have papers. And there is great fear of losing one’s job and one’s status in society. “Many don’t identify with either party.” Carlos intends to vote Democrat. Mia and Amy only know that they won’t be voting for the Republicans. They say they might not vote at all. A young Latino at a weekly market in Tucson, who prefers not to give his name, has already decided that he won’t be voting this time. He is not convinced by either the Democrats or the Republicans. This comes as no surprise to Silvia Sanchez. As a reporter for the radio station NPR in Arizona, she speaks to many Latinos. She has noticed that many no longer identify with any party. She also has the impression that support for the Republicans has declined. But that does not mean that those who no longer vote for the Republican Party are therefore voting Democrat. She knows people who voted for Trump in 2024 and regretted it. “Many no longer see themselves as Republicans, but neither do they see themselves as Democrats,” says Sanchez. There is also support for Trump amongst Latinos. In Sanchez’s view, the high cost of living and the actions of the immigration authorities, ICE, are the two most important issues for many Latinos. “It’s not that Latinos support illegal immigration. But they disagree with the aggressive tactics of ICE officers,” she says. Sanchez emphasises, however, that there is still support for Trump. In Arizona, there are many Latinos who run small businesses or restaurants. And many of them support the Republicans because they believe that business owners benefit more from the Republican Party than from the Democratic Party. “I’m happy with Trump’s policies.” Jorge is one such person: he runs a small fast-food restaurant in Catalina and is a die-hard Republican. In his restaurant, “Sammy’s Grill”, there are photos of Donald Trump on the walls, and they serve “Make America Great Again” burgers. Jorge is one of the “Latinos for Trump”. He is a US citizen who immigrated from El Salvador and is proud of his president, not least because of the war against Iran. At last, a president has had the guts to do it. Jorge is happy to put up with the rise in petrol prices for that. “If a nuclear bomb goes off, we’ll all be turned to dust. So would you rather pay five or six dollars for petrol now, or wait until you’re turned to dust? Which would you prefer?” Does he have a problem with the heavy-handed tactics of ICE officers? No, says Jorge; if you don’t put up a fight, you’ve got nothing to fear…