“Bavaria trend”: CSU remains clearly the strongest force in the Free State

The CSU will meet on Friday and Saturday in Munich for the party congress. In which mood this happens, it has been said in recent months again and again, will also depend on the survey values, which the Bayerische Rundfunk intends to publish a few days before. Now the “Bavarian trend” of Infratest dimap on behalf of the BR is there – and lets a party congress rather unproblematic for CSU boss Markus Söder expect. If there were a state election in Bavaria next Sunday, 36 percent would vote for the CSU. This is three percentage points less than in January. But if you take into account the rule of thumb, according to which the CSU can usually only stand out from the federal trend by a maximum of ten percentage points, then compared to the current 18 to 21 percent for the Union in the Confederation 36 percent are clearly more than some feared, others might have hoped. AfD is also rising in Bavaria, but remains behind the Federal party The AfD in Bavaria currently comes to 21 percent, which is a plus of two points compared to January, but there are five to eight points less than in the Confederation. The Free voters remain in Bavaria at nine percent, the Greens two percentage points to 15 percent. The SPD remains at eight percent, the left rises by one percentage point to four, the FDP goes up (or down) in the seven percent, which belong to the other parties. Interesting results also resulted in the question of satisfaction with politicians. Prime Minister Söder is at the top here, with 48 percent very satisfied or satisfied. Is that much, is that little? In any case, there are 49 percent who are less or not at all satisfied with him. In second place is ranked free voter boss Hubert Aiwanger (40/47), followed by CSU parliamentary leader Klaus Holetschek (33/31) and the Green parliamentary leader Katharina Schulze (31/28). More or less weakly cut the CSU federal politicians. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt came to 35/47, Research Minister Dorothee Bär to 26/38 and Agriculture Minister Alois Rainer to 12/17. Only 29 percent know him. The awareness scale is led by Söder with 97 percent – although it would be exciting to know who the three missing percent are. Doleschal follows in the CSU Europe group on Niebler To better weighting of Söder's values may contribute that the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) came in the popularity in June to the values 42/40, the Baden-Württemberg head of government Cem Özdemir (Green) in October to 58/31. Infratest also asked for another personality. This does not mean the MEP Christian Doleschal, who was unanimously elected as the new chairman of the CSU Europe Group on Monday evening and co-chaired the CDU/CSU Group in the EU Parliament in an abstention, both as the successor of Angelika Niebler, who was recently the focus on suspicion of misuse of EU funds. Rather, it refers to state parliament president Ilse Aigner, who, although not nominated as a candidate for the Federal President’s office at the party congress, should get a tailwind. According to the survey, 59 percent of respondents considered her a “good cast” for Schloss Bellevue, 22 percent think she is not. Among the CSU supporters, Aigner gets 87 percent approval, 79 of those of the Free voters, 64 of the Greens and 60 of the SPD supporters. Only AfD supporters considered Aigner majority – 24 to 49 – not a good choice.