New tax estimate: The account of Merz does not work

What a gift: On Thursday, the Federal Finance Minister will present the result of the new tax estimate. Although this should be better than in May, Lars Klingbeil (SPD) has nothing to distribute – not even for a reduction in the electricity tax. How can that be? The federal government essentially finances its expenditures through two sources: taxes and credits. If the economic picture brightens, this has a positive effect on tax revenue. At the same time, however, the economic component in the debt rule ensures that Klingbeil is allowed to make less new debt. That is a sensible thing. So the federal government does not have to save in bad times, which would strengthen the downturn. This means, on the other hand, that in better times he can no longer go full throttle into debt. For next year, this means that the coalition can hardly spend more or forego revenues – especially if they are permanently missing. Only a few days ago, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) promised a reduction in the electricity tax for all. He wants to finance this with the additional income from the tax estimate. The bill cannot be opened up front and back. In the short term, it does not work because of the economic component, see above. Not in the long term, because financial planning is only rich in vacancies and loans. Where there is a need for action or a global shortfall, the coalition has yet to deliver. Regardless, she works with a never before seen new debt. This makes interest spending explode downright: For 2030, Klingbeil expects more than 80 billion euros. At the beginning of the decade, it was only four billion euros. If this continues, it is only a matter of time before this item in the budget exceeds the EUR 100 billion mark. A reduction in electricity tax for all would be desirable. But before that, the coalition would have to cut subsidies and social spending. One thing is clear: The debt orgy cannot go on forever. Even if the tax estimate should be slightly better, the serious situation does not allow any further gifts.